Heads Up

About the Author

Kenneth G. McGee is a distinguished group vice president and research fellow at Gartner Inc., a leading research and advisory firm specializing in information technology and business growth. With a career that spans decades, McGee has become a trusted authority in his field. His expertise in real-time information and business process improvement has led to groundbreaking insights that help companies anticipate and navigate business surprises. McGee's work emphasizes the importance of leveraging real-time data to transform potential disasters into opportunities, a theme central to his book HEADS UP: How to Anticipate Business Surprises and Seize Opportunities First.

Main Idea

In HEADS UP, Kenneth G. McGee argues that business surprises, such as market crashes and operational failures, often come with warnings that are missed or ignored. The key to preventing these surprises lies in "predicting the present" — understanding real-time data and its implications. McGee emphasizes the necessity of real-time information monitoring and the transformation of this data into actionable insights. This proactive approach enables managers to turn potential disasters into opportunities, ensuring that businesses are always a step ahead.

Table of Contents

1. Part One: Ending Business Surprises
   • Turning Business Disasters into Opportunities
   • Identifying and Justifying the Right Real-Time Information
2. Part Two: Real Time in the Real World
   • Surprise Events: Missing the Warning
   • Suspected Events: Reporting Too Late
   • Surmounted Events: Getting It Right
3. Part Three: From Real-Time Opportunity Detection to Real-Time Enterprise
   • Following Through: Deploying Real-Time Opportunity Detection Across the Enterprise
   • Solving the Challenges of Deploying Real-Time Opportunity Detection

Ending Business Surprises

Turning Business Disasters into Opportunities

McGee begins by highlighting the importance of "predicting the present." Unlike the futile attempts to predict the future, understanding and acting upon current data allows businesses to respond effectively to emerging trends and potential issues. He states,

"Predicting the present means taking raw empirical information, analyzing it, and determining its meaning and implications." - Kenneth G. McGee

Managers need not be overwhelmed by the vast amounts of data; instead, they should focus on capturing and analyzing material data that directly impact their goals.

To illustrate this concept, McGee provides the example of a company noticing a decline in sales volumes. Instead of waiting until the end of the quarter to react, a manager using real-time data could immediately increase advertising efforts to boost sales, thereby meeting revenue targets. The ability to act swiftly and decisively, using real-time information, is what McGee refers to as real-time opportunity detection.

He further emphasizes that real-time information should not be confused with real-time response. While real-time data capture, monitoring, analysis, and reporting are crucial, the response should occur at the "right time." This approach ensures that managers make well-considered decisions, avoiding the pitfalls of hasty actions.