The Change Function

About the Author

Pip Coburn, the founder of Coburn Ventures, is a seasoned strategist with a wealth of experience in the technology industry. Prior to establishing his own advisory services firm, Coburn served as a managing director and global technology strategist in the technology group of UBS Investment Research. His role involved overseeing a vast network of 120 technology and telecom analysts worldwide. Coburn's unique perspective is shaped by his extensive background in analyzing and predicting the fortunes of numerous technology companies. He resides in Pleasantville, New York, where he continues to influence the tech world with his insights and strategic acumen.

Main Idea

In "The Change Function," Pip Coburn delves into the perplexing world of technology adoption, seeking to answer a crucial question: Why do some technologies succeed while others fail? Coburn posits that the key to understanding this lies in the concept of the "Change Function." This concept suggests that people are only willing to adopt new technologies when the pain of their current situation outweighs the perceived pain of adopting something new. He argues that technology companies often fail because they are too focused on their own innovations rather than the needs and crises of their potential users. The book explores various examples, both successful and failed, to illustrate how understanding user psychology and reducing the Total Perceived Pain of Adoption (TPPA) are critical to a technology's success.

Table of Contents

1. Silicon Valley, We've Got a Problem
2. The Change Function
3. Is the Technology Industry Ready for Change?
4. Why Technology Fails
5. A Future Winner: Flat Panel Display TV
6. One Future Loser: RFID
7. The Change Function in Action
8. What to Do?

Silicon Valley, We've Got a Problem

In the opening chapter, Coburn highlights a critical issue within the tech industry: the high failure rate of new technologies. He attributes this to a disconnect between technology creators and users. Companies often focus on the brilliance of their innovations, expecting users to appreciate them simply because they exist. However, users are driven by their needs and crises, not by the technical sophistication of a product. Coburn uses the example of the smartphone market, where "bare bones" phones outsell feature-laden smartphones because users find the latter confusing and unnecessary.

"More is confusing. Much more is much more confusing." - Pip Coburn

He emphasizes that technology companies need to shift their focus from a supplier-oriented approach to a user-oriented one. Understanding what users genuinely need and addressing their pain points is crucial for success.

The Change Function

Coburn introduces the concept of the "Change Function," which is central to the book. The Change Function is a formula that assesses the likelihood of a technology being adopted. It consists of two main components: the level of crisis experienced by users and the Total Perceived Pain of Adoption (TPPA). Coburn explains that users are more likely to adopt a new technology if the crisis they face is greater than the TPPA associated with the technology.